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RC Yu

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RC Yu•2 days ago

AI doesn't help us self diagnose -- yet!

Saw this paper on another board. From what I gather, the paper finds that ai chatbots don't help patients make accurate diagnoses or treatment solutions (vs their normal / non-ai information sources).

With model assistance, participants identified relevant conditions in fewer than 34.5% of cases, doing worse than controls; care choices were correct in fewer than 44.2%, with no significant improvement over controls. [Credo tldr]

I don't think this means "ai isn't helpful at all" e.g. doctors obviously use it as an aid. And I imagine using a combination of chatbots and other info gathering methods can increase efficiency (if not accuracy).

But the evidence (from the paper) is -- using ai can't replace a good ol' doctor's visit -- just yet!

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RC Yu•24 days ago

Can AI make scientific discoveries?

One thing I hear often is that "AI will help research, but it can't make original discoveries" (or some variant).

This article New ‘AI scientists’ are improving – but reveal their fundamental limits seems to say that LLM models can help research, but as they are based on language, they lack precision needed to validate fully hypothesis (and make discoveries on their own).

Surely this is all just a temporary limitation? Or is there some fundamental barrier?

(By the way check out credo summary of the article, which automatically pulls out the research papers cited!)

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RC Yu•13 days ago

Colonial German descendants: 2% of population, but own 70% of Namibian land?

Saw an Instagram post (by @AidanSimardone) with this claim, which caught my attention.

I guess one shouldn't be surprised by the abysmal lasting legacy of colonialism. But nonetheless I looked into the claim to learn more.

TLDR: the claim is an exaggeration/simplification, but the actual figures/stats are "still bad".

The first article I stumbled onto was this BBC article: "What's the right price to pay for genocide?".

It summarises Germany's brutal 1904-1908 colonial campaign in (present day) Namibia, noting:

As many as 65,000 of the 80,000 Herero living in German South West Africa at the start of colonial rule are estimated to have perished, as well as perhaps 10,000 of an estimated 20,000 Nama.

and the two countries' efforts to account for it:

Since 2015, when Germany formally acknowledged that the atrocities constituted genocide, it has been negotiating a restorative justice deal with Namibia that will set a global precedent.

On the 70% land figure, the article highlights the historical land distribution/seizure:

... most of their land was split into private farms for German settlers. And today most Herero and Nama live either on small overcrowded areas of communal land that were later allocated to them ... .

and specifically on today's ownership:

German Namibians are believed to be the biggest group among the white farmers who own about 70% of the country's farmland.

So according to the article, it's not exactly 70% of all land, but 70% of farmland. And it's not "white Germans" only, but they are the biggest group.

So the original claim is off, but the sentiment remains.

So what are the actual numbers?

I found this piece by "Namibia Fact Check" (an initiative by a Namibian think tank) – that did the math based on Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA) data:

  1. It states "previously advantaged farmers" own ~70% of commercial (freehold) farmland.

  2. The piece says "Previously advantaged farmers" isn't strictly speaking "white Germans", and says it's not clear what percentage of the population they make up (but it sounds like that data isn't officially available, and it is understood to mean white Germans and South Africans pretty much. From googling it sounds like white make up ~2-6%).

  3. And commercial (freehold) farmland constitutes ~42% of total land surface.

And so, "previously advantaged farmers" (basically white Germans and South Africans, that make up 2-6% of the population) own ~a third of total land (70% x 42%).

So yes, the original claim seems to be an exaggeration – but the sentiment remains. The actual figures aren't exactly rosey.

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RC Yu•3 days ago
Researching Malaysiahuman trafficking

Online scam operators use human trafficking victims?

I was reading up on human trafficking in the region, and I came across this UN report.

I had obviously known about scam operators (in Malaysia and the region), but didn't realise scammers used trafficked victims to run their operations.

Excerpts from the report are pretty horrifying:

... people are primarily recruited to these operations ... through what appear to be legitimate and even elaborate procedures

... On arrival [to the host country], migrants are ... watched over by security guards who are often heavily armed.

... individuals are subjected to the threat or use of force ... in some cases are unable even to move between different floors of the compound ... Reports have also been received of people being chained to their desk.

... Reports commonly describe people being subjected to ... beatings, humiliation, electrocution and solitary confinement, especially if they resist orders or disobey compound rules or if they do not meet expected scamming targets.

... Reports have also been received of sexual violence, including gang rape as well as trafficking into the sex sector, most usually as punishment, for example for failing to meet their targets.

... The traffickers hold an ever-increasing debt over the migrants – claimed to be for costs such as for travel, quarantine on arrival, training and living costs, and performance related fines ... This is a situation of debt-bondage.

... people have attempted escape, including by jumping off the compound buildings or swimming across rivers (for example, from Myanmar to Thailand or Cambodia to Viet Nam), however these attempts often end unsuccessfully, either with death or severe punishment upon recapture.

The report doesn't single out Malaysia specifically, and the above is a regional assessment.

But thought this is of interest, since Malaysia is known to be a "hub" of sorts for scamming operations (and victims).

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RC Yu•6 days ago

Morning sickness period particular critical for baby's health

Really interesting post here, about the evolutionary theory of "morning sickness". The credo tldr:

Mild pregnancy sickness may help steer pregnant women away from foods that could carry germs or harmful substances.

The post below (by Mercedes) also highlights experiments linking infections during "morning sickness" period (early in the pregnancy) to higher likelihood of congenital heart disease in infants.

So sounds like morning sickness => some natural deterrent against getting infections (through avoidance); but worth being particularly careful during that period.

Mercedes C.•7 days ago

Getting an Infection during the period of "Morning Sickness", poses Higher Risks of Congenital Heart Disease?

One of the most unexpected parts of the conversation was Jimmy Carr’s discussion of morning sickness. 🫣

It sent me down a rabbit hole because there is an interesting evolutionary theory behind why morning sickness tends to occur during this particular period of pregnancy.

The Maternal and Embryo Protection Hypothesis, an evolutionary theory about morning sickness, where:

  1. Organogenesis: Morning sickness typically peaks between weeks 6 and 14 of pregnancy. When the embryo’s major organs (including the heart, brain, and limbs) are forming and are most vulnerable to damage from toxins or pathogens.

  2. The "Shield" Effect: Because pregnancy naturally suppresses a woman's immune system (to prevent her body from rejecting the fetus), she becomes more sensitive to foodborne pathogens. Evolutionary biologists believe nausea and vomiting evolved to force mothers to avoid or expel potentially toxic or bacteria-laden foods during this window.

  3. The Shift: Once the organs are fully formed (around the second trimester) and the baby enters the growth-only phase, morning sickness usually stops for most women.

EVIDENCE for Infection & Congenital Heart Disease ﮩ٨ـﮩﮩ٨ـ🫀ﮩ٨ـﮩﮩ٨ـ

A link from two meta-analyses, between First Trimester Maternal Infections and Fetal Congenital Heart Defects has been found, especially in regards to rubella virus, coxsackievirus, respiratory infections, and influenza.

⚠️ Though there is an important distinction here to make:

This does NOT mean that morning sickness itself is linked to congenital heart defects.

But the same period of pregnancy in which morning sickness may have evolved to reduce exposure to potentially harmful substances is also a period when the developing embryo is particularly vulnerable to certain environmental insults, including infections.

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The "carnivore diet" may promote weight loss, but risks nutrient deficiencies and high cholesterol.

Claim: The “Living Carnivore” Diet is Good for Weight Loss

Verdict: Broadly true, but misleading

“Within 30 days I lost 20 pounds. JD Vance is also on the diet and you can see how different he looks.”

“The way that you're supposed to eat it is bite for bite. You take a bite of the meat, you take a bite of the sauerkraut”

RFK Jr.

After Vice President JD Vance credited his weight loss to RFK Jr’s recommended “meat and sauerkraut” diet, the “Living Carnivore” diet has been under the spotlight. But does it really work?

The Good News: Weight Loss is Reasonable

For the goal of weight loss – without considering other issues – and despite no direct evidence on the Living Carnivore diet specifically, it doesn't seem too bad. This largely comes down to the benefits of eating fermented foods. Generally speaking, there are multiple benefits to consuming fermented foods, as shown by a study using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 2001 to 2018.

The study found that each 100 g of microbe-containing foods was associated with reduced BMI, waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, C-reactive protein, plasma glucose and triglyceride, and increased high density lipoprotein cholesterols. The mechanisms of action get a little complicated, but generally include influencing gene expression, slowing gastric emptying and modulation of the gut microbiome.

The carnivore side of the diet is where the problems come in. Purely for weight loss, there is some evidence that they can lead to weight loss and increased satiety.

The Bad News: Nutrient Deficiencies and Cholesterol

A 2026 scoping review focused on the carnivore diet noted these benefits for weight loss, but stressed the “substantial risks” of nutrient deficiencies. Overall, the carnivore diet can lead to deficiencies in thiamine, vitamin C, vitamin D, magnesium, iodine, potassium, calcium and fibre. The deficiency in fibre is also pretty extreme, at less than 1/25th of the adequate intake. It's debatable whether you could rectify these issues by adding fermented foods.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and total cholesterol generally increase, carrying risks of heart disease, and some versions have high sodium, potentially leading to high blood pressure and more.

And it should go without saying that eating “bite for bite” is probably useless, it takes a long time to digest food, relative to actual eating process. It all hits your stomach basically simultaneously anyway.

Overall, the diet – especially fermented foods – could help weight loss, but it’s terrible as an overall diet.

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RC Yu•19 days ago

Politics of transboundary haze in Southeast Asia

Seasonal haze has gone on for decades. I'm interested in digging into the politics of haze

Why has Indonesia not been able to stop illegal forest burning? Why has regional pressure not worked?

Here's one paper to start with, that found:

The study reveals a significant electoral cycle (a repeated pattern linked to elections) in forest fires. Both the number of ignitions and the area burned decline during election years. They then increase steeply in the year after elections. The authors argue that politicians may suppress forest burning when it could damage their electoral chances. After elections, those incentives weaken, allowing more burning for land conversion.

I find this somewhat encouraging -- as it suggests that forest burning can be reduced, when political incentives align.

The challenge is how to align incentives more permanently -- beyond the narrow pre-election period.

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RC Yu•16 days ago

Informative post on arsenic and rice. Here's a paper shared with specific recommendations on how much rice kids should eat:

To avoid a risk of developing cancer, infants up to one year of age should consume no more than 32.2 g of the studied products per week, children under three years of age up to 68.7 g, and adults 243 g.

So infants should eat less than a bowl of (white) rice a week.

Arsenic in Brown and White Rice

I recently added more rice into my diet and wanted to understand the nutritional value of switching from white to brown rice. Then I recalled hearing about the potential risk of more arsenic so I dug into the research.


This 2016 risk assessment from the FDA provided baseline numbers of the amount of arsenic in rice and rice products as well as a quantitative estimate of lung and bladder cancer risk from long-term exposure of these products.

We found that average concentrations of inorganic arsenic – the more toxic form of arsenic – were as follows:

• 92 parts per billion (ppb) in white rice

• 154 ppb in brown rice

• 104 ppb in infants’ dry white-rice cereal

• 119 ppb in infants’ dry brown-rice cereal

The primary culprit of damage is inorganic arsenic in foods, which I learned in not a traditional heavy metal but a "toxic metalloid". The good news is this means inorganic arsenic doesn't bioaccumulate the same way other heavy metals do. The risk however is still continuous exposure over a long period of time which can damage DNA, the skin, and the vascular system.

Dr. Michael Greger also provides a good summary and insights in his video

Which Rice Has Less Arsenic: Black, Brown, Red, White or Wild?Evaluating differences in rice, we can observe:

  • brown rice contains more arsenic than white rice

  • long grain contains more than shorter grains, though this may be due more to where these grains are grown

  • arsenic accumulates in the rice bran, which is why brown rice contain so much more arsenic

  • many of the varieties of colored rice were worse than white rice for the reason above

  • children under 6 should almost definitely avoid rice AND rice products, with regulations in the EU now adding more conservative limits on the amount of acceptable arsenic in rice products for infants

One bit of good news is brown rice MAY make the arsenic less bio-available as shown in this population study. As Dr. Greger says:

So, if you test the urine of thousands of Americans who don’t eat rice at all, they’re still peeing out about eight micrograms of toxic, carcinogenic arsenic a day. It’s in the air; it’s in the water; there’s a little bit in nearly all foods. But, eat just one food—a cup or more of white rice a day—and your exposure shoots up 65%.

Okay. But, what about those who eat a cup or more a day of brown rice, which technically contains even more arsenic? Your exposure shoots up the same 65%. No difference between the urine arsenic levels of white rice-eaters compared to brown rice-eaters. Now, this was not an interventional study, where they feed people the same amount of rice to see what happened, which would have been ideal. This was a population study. So, maybe the reason the levels are the same is that white rice-eaters eat more rice than brown rice-eaters. So, that’s why they ended up with the same levels? We don’t know, but it should help to put the minds of brown rice-eaters at rest.

So what is the risk? This analysis from the EPA used a Bayesian approach to estimate the dose response of inorganic arsenic exposure from water. It found a linear relationship of more arsenic exposure with bladder and lung cancer. If we extrapolate the EPA's 2025 upper-bound estimate: one daily cup of brown rice for life adds up to 0.42 percentage points of bladder or lung cancer risk (+5.5% relative to a 7.6% baseline); white adds 0.25 (+3%). At three cups: 1.45 (+19%) for brown and 0.8 (+10%) for white.

A more direct causal study would need to prove out this relationship, but this definitely took me aback. For rice staple cultures, three cups of rice daily is pretty normal. These upper bound figures begin to look similar to increased risk of cancer from a daily beer or alcoholic drink.

Unfortunately rinsing rice does little to remove arsenic, especially in brown rice. But researchers did find a parboil method could dramatically reduce the amount of arsenic, removing 54% & 73% iAs from brown & white rice. This is a specific method that requires a lot water that is then tossed out but it does retain a lot of the same nutrients.

My takeaway? We are exposed to arsenic across a number of ways; through our air, water, and food. The increased cancer risks are linear from continued exposure, which means the amount of arsenic consumption scales with risk. If I was a regulatory body in a country where rice is a staple food, I would set significantly stricter regulations to evaluate and limit the amounts in rice and rice products.

Personally, it doesn't seem worth eating rice regularly, especially brown rice. I'll probably try to have less than 3 to 4 servings a week and mix in other grains. I'd be especially careful with infants and rice products that may concentrate the arsenic levels.

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RC Yu•21 days ago

AI companions and loneliness

This is an interesting piece by a Malaysian think tank, that covers the use of "ai companions" and loneliness.

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RC Yu•a month ago
Parentingscreen time

Is "screen time" bad?

As a parent, I wonder if screen time is bad. I came across this study, that seems to be widely debated.

The study basically analysed some large datasets, to examine whether screen time negatively affected teens (controlling for various factors).

What they found: basically almost no effect.

Caveats:

  • "screen time" is a huge category: it could include social media doomscrolling, but it could also include doing homework on a computer.

  • also, the study didn’t separate how screen time may affect different teens differently (e.g. boy vs girl, different ages).

Subsequent papers have delved deeper, and indeed found not all screen time is harmless.

Thoughts:

  1. screen time per se is not necessarily good or bad. We need to look into the specific screen activity.

  2. I still worry about eye sight though (kids staring at screens will have worse eyesight?). Need to explore more papers!

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